Newsletter #2: Optimism around Uncertainty or a Play of Volatility?
Ginni Chauhan
Mapping the intersection of market structure and trading psychology.
BIAS or SYSTEM EDGE?
It could very well be a bias. Or perhaps a stroke of bullish luck? As for the last few months, despite the uncertainty around market conditions, tariffs, wars, trade route blockades, etc., no short position was held overnight.
Some speculative gain had to be observable to maintain such a strict protocol of being long on the market. The question is aptly asked:
‘Is the optimism around uncertainty a sign of markets taking pace to a bull run, or is any profit made on the long decisions just a play of strong selection using criterion analysis, amplified with volatility?’
Any answer bringing optimism to the equation of trading would equal bringing further bias to the trading decisions.Any answer in denial of changing market structures and trends, accepting volatility, would make the selection system seem more efficient.
But what if the trend changes and volatility contracts???
What are the lessons without guessing the Market direction?
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